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 IN THIS ISSUE...  January 2002

REFLECTIONS
As we begin a new year, many of us are in somewhat of a reflective mood as we look toward 2002. As we talk with landowners, one concern is their enterprises are not profitable or profitable enough. They wonder what they can do to realize an increase in profits. With this in mind we would offer a few ideas.

Take inventory. Take stock of:  what your goals are, what you like to do, what you are skilled at, what physical resources you have, what your financial resources are.

Think outside the box: Don't continue doing something just because you have done it all along or because all of your neighbors do it. Let your creativity express itself.

Identify alternatives: Keep your eyes and ears open to alternatives that might fit your resources. Acquire information on alternatives. Attend educational meetings to gain new ideas.

Some possible places to obtain this information are: Small or New Farm Resources (http://newfarm.osu.edu) With a new web address, the Small Farm New Farm Internet Resources web page is even easier to use. Do you need help finding the 2001 Wheat Performance Trials? Need the latest USDA and Ohio information about West Nile Virus because you are concerned about your horses? How about finding Ohio Enterprise Budgets or Water Resources? Need a ginseng budget, or machinery custom rates? Want to know how to conduct farm tours or start a home-based business? You can find answers to these and hundreds of other questions at newfarm.osu.edu. The site is divided into seven sections: agritourism, crops, enterprise budgets, livestock, management, value added, and water resources. For example, the crops section is further divided into berries, flowers, forages and grasses, forestry, grains and oil seeds, grapes, greenhouse, hydroponics and irrigation, nursery plants, nut crops, ornamentals, speciality crops, tree fruits and vegetables. Give the site a look and bookmark it on your computer. It can be the start to finding answers to your many questions 

on the farm. If you don't have access to the web, you can visit the Extension office in your county and we will provide you a way to visit that site.

Farming Alternatives - NRAES-32 Bulletin - A Guide to Evaluating the Feasibility of New Farm-Based Enterprises. This publication is written for families and individuals interested in developing a new-farm based enterprise. It is especially helpful for those considering nontraditional enterprises. It is available at your Extension office.

Individual Consultations - If you are truly interested in making some changes in your farm operation, either of us are available for individual consultations.

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SELECTING CORN HYBRIDS
Ohio farmers should evaluate corn performance data from as many locations as possible when choosing hybrids to plant next season.

Ohio State University agronomist Peter Thomison said that results of the 2001 Ohio Corn Performance Trials showed that variable environmental conditions throughout the state during the growing season affected the performance of corn from county to county and even field to field within a county. Results of the test are available online at http://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/corn2001.

"The main thing that stood out was stalk lodging that was so severe this year. A hybrid at one location lodged significantly, while the same hybrid in an adjacent field didn't lodge at all," said Thomison. "The one message that farmers should come away with is that it's very important for them to use as many sources of information as possible to determine hybrids with good standability."

In past performance trials, lodging in hybrids has often been limited or negligible - normally less than five percent. In this year's trial, average lodging ranged from 23-25 percent with some hybrids experiencing as high as 80 percent lodging. Stalk lodging, the final stage of stalk rot, is the breakage of stalks below the ear. Stalk lodging slows down harvest and causes a loss in yield from corn that falls to the ground.

"The results demonstrate that the environment can have a big impact on corn performance within such a small area and that what hybrids you choose and what management practices you follow can have major consequences on yield."

Ohio State researchers evaluated 229 corn hybrids representing 39 commercial brands for such characteristics as yield, standability, maturity and quality traits like protein, oil and starch contents. The hybrids were split into early-maturing and late-maturing categories in the hopes that the difference in maturity would provide a more accurate assessment of hybrid performance.

"The 2001 trials were a study in contrast," said Thomison. "For example, yields were all over the board." Average yield in southwest Ohio climbed to 177 bushels per acres where rainfall was ample, while drought conditions in the northeast region of the state kept yields between 137 and 142 bushels per acre.

"Despite the drought conditions in the northeast, the hybrids managed to eke out some decent yields. The southwest got good yields, but it came with a price as the ample rainfall created shallow root systems that stressed out the plant enough to cause eventual stalk lodging problems," said Thomison.

Though no one can predict how weather will affect corn performance, growers can choose hybrids that may perform well under a variety of environmental conditions, as well as be willing to modify management practices.

"For example, if stalk quality and avoidance of lodging is important to a farmer, then a good practice would be to harvest early instead of waiting for corn to dry below 20 percent grain moisture, or choosing a hybrid that shows good standability if the farmer plans to keep his corn in the field longer than normal," said Thomison. "The important thing is to choose a hybrid package that offers performance characteristics that will buffer the crop from different environmental conditions."

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BEEF - SHORT TERM SLUMP TO PERSIST FOR MARCH OF 2002
To understand what 2002 holds for the cattle sector, let's explore the supply and demand fundamentals. On the supply side, the US cow-calf sector is not increasing the size of the breeding herd. While official figures will not be available until February, the large cow and heifer slaughter figures during 2001 point to a smaller cow herd than last year. Surely weather had a major role to play as the pasture conditions in 9 of the top 10 beef cow states where below average during 2001 and hay prices were above average in 9 or these 10 states. Add in the fall price collapse and one understands why additional heifer retention was not an attractive option. This means that cow-calf operators will be in the driver's seat for the next several years as the number of feeder cattle available for placement will continue to dwindle and feedlots, regardless of the recent pain they have suffered, will be bidding most of any expected profit margin into the price of these feeders.

Data from feedlot activity provides a view of the short-term supply outlook. USDA figures from December point to feedlot inventories that are even with year previous. Placement data suggests feedlots will be relatively empty in 2002 as nearly one million fewer cattle were placed on feed during the last five months of 2001 than in the previous year. This means slaughter in 2002 will be diminished. Due to drastically increased weights, however, beef tonnage may not decrease until March or April of 2002. Thereafter, both slaughter and beef supply figures should fall below those observed in 2001.

How these supplies translate into price depend on the status of demand. Demand is composed of three major components: at-home demand, away-from-home demand and export demand. At home demand for beef, which is still the largest component, seems to be retaining the strength it exhibited in 2000 and in early 2001. Data used to calculate the consumer price index suggest that this segment of demand was 3-5% higher in each quarter of 2001 compared to 2000. Away-from-home demand, for which there exists little data, is likely the major culprit of the price collapse seen in the fall of 2001. Restaurants and food service institutions suffered greatly as the US populous delayed or canceled travel plans that would have brought high-valued beef cuts to their plates. At least some of this seems to have been channeled to at-home demand: the retail price for choice beef purchased for at-home consumption was 8.4% higher in October 2001 than in year previous. I think the bottom line on domestic demand is that consumers' underlying taste for beef continues to appreciate relative to other protein sources. However, tightening budgets due to the recession and limited travel due to changed routines has temporarily diminished domestic demand. As the economy improves, as it is predicted to do the next year, and as travel patterns approach those of the pre-September 11 world, domestic demand will be back on track.

Export demand, which accounts for about 10% of total US production, suffers a fate similar to away-from-home demand, though some of the reasons are different. Our leading export markets - Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Canada - all suffer from slowing economic conditions. Furthermore, the Japanese consumer is continuing to avoid beef due to fears surrounding the Mad Cow Disease (BSE) incidents of the fall of 2001 and may not return to normal beef consumption patterns for some time. Figures for the first 10 months of 2001 suggest that total exports of beef are down 11% compared to 2000. Oddly, exports to Japan during October, the height of the BSE frenzy, were larger than year previous. This probably stems from the delivery of product that was booked prior to the BSE incidents; future months may decrease by 50% from year previous. Such a loss is likely responsible for $2-$4 of the price decrease we have seen in this market during the fall of 2001.

Using futures prices and adjusting for historical basis suggests that Ohio prices will spend most of the year in the upper-$60's. The price increase to the upper $60's by February and then peak in the lower-$70's in April. Prices will then decline throughout the rest of the spring and summer hitting bottom in September in the upper-$60's. The price should then climb to the lower- to middle-$70's by the end of the year.
-Brian Roe
 OSU Extension Livestock Economist

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PESTICIDE APPLICATOR RECERTIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES
If you need to obtain recertification credits before March 31, 2002 to renew your private applicator's license, several opportunities exist locally:

Full three hour recertification sessions:

Wednesday, January 30, 7-10 p.m., Jefferson JVS, Wintersville (all categories)

Wednesday, February 20, 7-10 p.m., Carrollton High School, Carrollton (all categories)

Thursday, March 21, 1-4 p.m., Scio Fire Hall, Scio (all categories)

Agronomy Day, February 28, 10 a.m. - 3 p.m., Atwood Lodge, Dellroy (One hour credit in categories 1 or 2)

Christmas Tree Insect & Disease Clinic, April 29, 7:30 p.m. (One hour credit in categories 5 to 7)

WINTER POND AERATION - IS IT NEEDED?
Many pond owners have installed aeration systems in recent years. I am frequently asked whether it is necessary to continue to aerate during the winter. The simple answer is no unless we are in the throes of a brutal winter that could result in a winter fish kill. This occurred last winter. Very cold weather in early December, 2000 put thick ice on ponds which did not break-up in many ponds until mid-February. As winter progressed, many ponds received virtually no oxygen input. Even though the water is cold, fish respiration and bottom decomposition still required oxygen. The result was the slow decrease in oxygen levels under the ice. In early February, we reached dangerously low levels (<2 ppm) in some ponds and fish kills occurred.

Why didn't all ponds have a fish kill? Well, no two ponds are alike in their winter oxygen needs. The following factors increase the chances of a fish kill if ice persists for a long time: old ponds with a lot of bottom muck; ponds which underwent late season vegetation herbicide control the previous year; ponds with high fish bio-masses; and protected ponds where snow is not blown off by the wind. These ponds would be protected by an aeration system that kept at least part of the pond open during very cold weather.

Bottom Line: no need to turn on that aerator or bubbler until ice cover has lasted for several weeks. Just a small area of open water can quickly begin to replenish oxygen levels. I recommend the aeration system be left on until the ice covers less than half the pond for at least a week. At that point, it can be turned off. It may again be needed later if thick ice returns.

Peruse OSU Extension Factsheet A-8-01 Winter and Summer Fish Kills in Ponds for additional information on winter fish kills and how they occur.

-Bill Lynch
Program Specialist, OSU Extension

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January 21-23  OSU Nursery Short Course & Nursery Trade Show 
   Columbus Convention Center, Columbus (for info - onla.org)

January 25-26  Innovative Farmers of Ohio Annual Conference
   Proctor Conference Center, London, Ohio (for info - ifoh@aol.com)

January 29  Hobby Maple Syrup Production Program
   7:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. -  Dutch Valley Restaurant, Sugarcreek 

January 30  Pesticide Recertification
   7:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. -  Jefferson JVS, Wintersville

February 6-8  Ohio Fruit & Vegetable Growers Congress & Roadside
   Marketing Conference -  Sea Gate Center, Toledo (for info - 
   www.ohiofruit.org)

February 12  Tri County Beef Management School Session #1
   7:30 p.m. -  Carrollton High School, Carrollton

February 19  Tri-County Beef Banquet
   7:00 p.m. -  Jefferson JVS, Wintersville

February 20  Pesticide Recertification
   7:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. -  Carrollton High School, Carrollton

February 23  Carroll County Dairy Banquet
   1:00 p.m. -  Dellroy Community Hall, Dellroy

February 26  Tri-County Beef Management School Session #2
   7:30 p.m. -  Pushkarich Library, Cadiz

February 28  Tri-County Agronomy Day
   10:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m. -  Atwood Lake Resort, Dellroy
 

Sincerely,
 

Mike Hogan Extension Agent Agriculture & Natural Resources  Community Development

Ken Simeral Extension Agent Agriculture & Natural Resources Community Development

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Trade names are supplied with the understanding that no discrimination is intended and no endorsement by Ohio State University is implied.

All educational programs conducted by Ohio State University Extension are available to clientele on a non-discriminatory basis without regard to race, color, creed, religion, sexual orientation, national origin, gender, age, disability or Vietnam-era veteran status.

OSU Extension will provide accommodations to handicapped persons needing assistance to participate in Extension programs. If you require some type of assistance/accommodations to attend programs, utilize written materials or visit the Carroll, Harrison, or Jefferson County Extension Offices, please contact that office or TTD#1-800-589-8292.

Visit Ohio State University Extension’s WWW site “Ohioline” at: hhtp:/www.ag.ohio-state.edu/~ohioline/
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Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Keith L. Smith, Director, Ohio State University Extension.
TDD # 1 (800) 589-8292 (Ohio only) or (614) 292-1868